Aging and Depopulation Overlay On top of losing its natural assets, Japan could lose about 40 percent of its municipalities over the next century as the countryside depopulates. 20 That’s over 740 cities and towns at risk of disappearing. 21 While some might argue that rural-to-urban migration typically accompanies economic growth—boosting productivity and per capita income, as seen in many developing countries—Japan’s situation is unique. As a developed and aging society, the benefits of urban migration are limited when the overall population is shrinking. Rural Japan faces a web of complex problems where deeply interconnected challenges strain communities’ resilience on multiple fronts. In many regions, increased death rates associated with aging populations are shrinking community census. As younger generations move to cities or leave Japan altogether, they also take with them the workforce and tax base needed to sustain local businesses and services like restaurants, schools, and elder care. Regional communities struggle to ensure individual well-being in times of economic uncertainties that limit public services and disrupt local livelihoods. 22 Beyond economic impacts, rural depopulation threatens cultural heritage, ecological stewardship, and regional equity, leaving these areas increasingly vulnerable and reliant on urban centers. Local Snapshot Depopulation and Unpredictable Workforce The population of Nishiawakura Village is decreasing annually—as seen in Figure B. The elderly are dying, and young people are leaving. The primary industries affected by these trends are forestry and agriculture. In Okayama Prefecture, the number of agricultural workers has decreased about 50 percent in twenty-seven years. 23 Despite these trends, A0 has managed to avoid a labor shortage thus far—an achievement given the context. Women have stepped into roles traditionally held by men in forest product operations, showcasing how gender equity can strengthen resilience. Of A0’s 130 employees, eighty-one are female, demonstrating how the company has adapted to demographic realities by harnessing the underutilized potential of women in these industries. 24 However, this adaptation alone may not be enough to sustain the workforce long-term. Without proactive measures to attract and retain younger workers and stabilize the community’s population, A0 anticipates significant labor shortages in the future— threatening the viability of both the business and the industries it supports. 141
Ten Years in the Making
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